Is it truly the end of the United States led world order? A report, primarily supported and sponsored by the U.S. Army’s Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate, the Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development has concluded what many political scientist have been predicting in the last ten years; the United States led international order established after World War II is “fraying” and “collapsing”.
The report, At Our Own Peril: DOD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World, announced that the United States is losing its position of supremacy in world affairs.
Given that the report was published to evaluate the Department of Defense’s methods of risk assessment in Pentagon policy, one can assume the validity of such concerns.
The United States gained international influence after WWI.
The First World War had, as Woodrow Wilson expressed, been justified in order to make the world safe for democracy.
After the war, a new world order which emphasized collective security and democracy was advocated for.
After the Gulf War, years later in 1991, George W. Bush’s speech to Congress following the expulsion of Iraqi forces from Kuwait, emphasized the supremacy of the United States in the new world order.
“Now, we can see a new world coming into view. A world in which there is the very real prospect of a new world order. In the words of Winston Churchill, a world order in which the principles of justice and fair play protect the weak against the strong. A world where the United Nations, freed from cold war stalemate, is poised to fulfil the historic vision of its founders. A world in which freedom and respect for human rights find a home among all nations,” he said.
Yet, with the dot-com bust, the war on terrorism causing immense financial expense and loss, with the collapse of Lehman Brothers that stimulated a banking crisis in 2008, with the detention center at Guantanamo Bay which some argue undermined American ideals, with the trillion dollar student loan crisis, with the present healthcare crisis, and with many other scenes that continue to undercut our diplomacy, the United States is certainly losing ground.
The perception of American exceptionalism might be on the decline, but perhaps that isn’t a bad thing.
Yes, a new brand of nationalism in the United States has overwhelmingly grown, and populism seems to be growing as many Americans attempt to compensate for the sense of loss, but perhaps, despite the report, the United States is not facing imperial decline.
Instead, perhaps, the world is entering into a new period of renewed imperial conflict.
With the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China both pressing new challenges onto our weakened democratic government, can we expect to see the conflicts continue to increase in this post-Cold War era?
I would assume so.
President Trump’s newly initiated trade war with China, while mostly perceived as a negative and poor strategy, is a petty attempt at weakening Chinese investments in Africa and Latin America.
Although, arguably, these areas of the world have been victims of trade wars initiated by imperialist nations for years.
The nations that will suffer the most, and the people -not just corporations-that will suffer the most if the trade war escalates, will be from these regions that China has been investing in for years.
The most recent attack on Syria is also seemingly an attack on Russian relations.
It is no secret that Russia has been supportive of Assad’s regime.
In addition, after ordering the biggest single US military strikes on Syria, President Trump’s mendacity is on clear view for the American public. Despite the War Powers act, or maybe because if it, Congress is now arguing if the attack was unconstitutional.
Regardless, with newly emboldened regional powers like China and Russia eager to challenge the United States, and with a president who is very contradictory with our foreign relations, the United States does seem to be losing important aspects of authority, accountability, and cultural dominance.
The report, At Our Own Peril: DOD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World, in observing that there is an obligation to preserve the United States’ global position in the present international order, stressed that the structural capacity to do so is “under enormous stress”.
The report also urged the United States government to increase more surveillance, expand our military, and to ensure “strategic manipulation of public opinion”.
Additionally, with the Pentagon warning that “global events will happen faster [we are] currently equipped to handle,” one may indeed predict a new world order commencing once again.
What will this new world order look like?
Will this new world order, continue to make space for democracy?
Well, if we are smart, it may be up for us to decide.