Unless you haven’t opened up Facebook, read a newspaper or watched television these past few weeks, you know that Trump’s campaign experienced a meltdown of unimaginable proportions recently.
A 2005 audio recording of Trump surfaced recently exposing derogatory and sexually violent language toward women.
Since then, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has uninvited Trump to a major Republican event and even more party officials have withdrawn their support of their party’s candidate.
Many have declared this as the death of Trump’s campaign. But I’m not convinced.
Call me cynical (I am), but I believe Trump’s most disastrous mistake to date could actually be more detrimental to Clinton.
The outrage over the audiotape should be a dramatic gain for Clinton, but the majority of the people who are angry are the people who have been angry at Trump since before the primaries.
Many major Republicans have denounced him and his comments, but major party opposition didn’t stop him from winning the primaries.
Many feminist politicians, celebrities, and voters are outraged at the recording, but the same people were outraged before.
These may be the most sexist comments Trump has made so far, but they are hardly the first.
The mainstream media has been highly critical of Trump in the past week, but from his immigration policies, to his tax reports, to his business dealings, the media has always criticized him.
This new information has only served to intensify feelings, not completely reverse them.
In a country where one person only gets one vote, how angry the individual voter is does not change what goes in the ballot box.
Trump’s core group remains largely unchanged.
While Republican leaders may denounce his comments, neither Paul Ryan nor Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has unendorsed him.
This is because they realize that Trump still holds sway with the majority of the party’s voters.
Even after the release, recent polls from Politico report that few core GOP voters have turned away from Trump.
Trump has made misogynistic comments before.
Remember his “blood coming out of her wherever” remark about Fox New’s Megyn Kelly?
Though maybe not on the scale of the audio recording, Trump’s sexist comments haven’t repulsed his supporters before the recording’s leak.
As long as he drums up enough fear over “Crooked Hillary”, her e-mail scandals, and her foundation donations, his voters will still show up to the polls.
Trump knows this.
As he said in January of this year, he “could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”
Clinton’s problem is this: while Trump likely may not be losing votes, people are already perceiving a win for Clinton.
This means that her supporters may not feel the need to go to polls on Election Day.
Democrats and sympathetic Independents may think, “I don’t need to vote because there’s no possible way that raving misogynist could win,” and that’s exactly how Trump could win.
Call me cynical (I am), but I believe Trump’s most disastrous mistake to date could actually be more detrimental to Clinton.
Public opinion does not win elections.
Votes do.
Trump has used all his charisma and fame to motivate his voters to show up.
His most recent scandal hurts Clinton because it drives her supporters to be passive when it comes to the polls, believing everyone else will vote for Clinton while they can sit at home.
Even if Clinton wins, her presidency will not be successful if the majority of Congress does not support her.
Many Senate and House races are far closer than the Presidency.
If Democrats stay home on Election Day, feeling secure in the Presidential race, then Republicans will more than likely have a majority in Congress.
Because of Trump’s mistakes and his repulsion of many voters, Clinton could pay the price with a lack of congressional support for her first two years in office.
Despite the recent media storm, Trump’s campaign is not dead.
His support is as alive as it has ever been.
His voters will still show up on Election Day.
So those of us that want Clinton to win must remain passionate and motivated.
We still must pay attention to the campaign.
We must vote.
Or else we will wake up on November 9 with this man, who brags about assaulting women, as our new president.